Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa713…5c5d sports 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%25W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$2
other 21% −$7
politics 19% −$2
crypto 11% −$1
world 8% −$2
economics 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 237 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses25 / 212
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage177d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $38 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $135 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $26 $0 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $37 $0 -1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $153 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $121 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 25 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 25 $80 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $203 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 7d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 8d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $27 20d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $27 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 28d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 29d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $34 41d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $34 41d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $29 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $29 95d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $33 95d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $33 95d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $24 95d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $24 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 96d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $34 96d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $34 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? SELL No 95¢ $37 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $37 96d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $38 96d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $38 97d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $31 97d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $31 97d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $32 97d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $32 97d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $29 97d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $29 97d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.21 · official $35.21 (match) · 833 history records