Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa713…6e67 crypto 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-3%) realized −$191 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%206W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$90
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.6% -13.7% 70% 48% -13.0%
≤30d 75 -14.4% -22.6% 60% 41% -16.9%
≤90d 345 -10.5% -19.0% 58% 23% -13.5%
all 371 -13.0% -21.3% 56% 22% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 22% -13.8%
10% -28.8% 14% -22.0%
15% -35.7% 7% -29.6%
20% -42.0% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$191
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses206 / 165
Open positions1
Markets (closed)371 / 372
History coverage114d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 60¢ 56¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$31 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$24 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$46 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $82 −$17 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $88 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $41 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $82 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 05 $37 −$32 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 05 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $57 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 03 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 03 $81 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 03 $36 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $36 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $38 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $35 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $45 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $36 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $36 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $34 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $43 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $36 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $36 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $38 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $31 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $29 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $36 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $31 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.36 · official $25.36 · 2142 history records