Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa710…f1cc sports 1460 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,317 (+2%) realized +$1,306 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%393W / 1049L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$419est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$108
14 days−$219
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$247
other 21% −$596
politics 2% +$1,492
world 1% +$26
crypto 0% +$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -6.3% -15.2% 26% 23% -13.3%
≤30d 237 -3.3% -12.5% 29% 26% -9.2%
≤90d 412 -4.8% -13.8% 27% 25% -10.1%
all 1442 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 26% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 26% -8.3%
10% -18.0% 25% -17.1%
15% -25.9% 25% -25.1%
20% -33.2% 24% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$35 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$1,306
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses393 / 1049
Est. fees paid−$419
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1442 / 1460
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 35¢ 39¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+11%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 26¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 24¢ 26¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners Over 28¢ 30¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+9%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 −$1 -2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $12 −$1 -9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 −$86 -85%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$16 -77%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $41 −$26 -64%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$97 +474%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $38 +$102 +270%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$50 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 +$92 +226%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$50 +250%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$91 +442%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $41 −$3 -8%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $39 −$3 -8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $41 $0 -1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 −$16 -39%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $41 −$21 -52%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $39 +$107 +276%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 −$3 -8%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $81 −$20 -25%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $82 −$34 -41%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $31 −$27 -87%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $150 +$145 +97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$88 -87%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 −$3 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 −$33 -82%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$59 +146%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$12 +30%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $97 +$2 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $41 −$10 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 28¢ $40 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $46 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $41 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $41 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $41 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 22¢ $31 43h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 34¢ $40 43h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 22¢ $11 43h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $50 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 21¢ $5 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 21¢ $0 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 21¢ $1 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $0 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $24 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $1 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $7 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 21¢ $3 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $3 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 21¢ $2 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $10 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $0 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $41 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $27 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.21 · official $214.64 (match) · 3500 history records