trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $41 | $40 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $11 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $31 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $15 | −$1 | -8% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 26 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 26 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? | May 26 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 23 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? | May 21 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? | May 20 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 19 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 13 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | May 13 | $23 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese | May 11 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | May 11 | $21 | $0 | -1% |
| Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | May 10 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | May 10 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? | May 10 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | May 09 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | May 08 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? | May 08 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | May 08 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Oregon vs. Iowa | Mar 03 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 57% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 57% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 57% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 28 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 39% | 0% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 0% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -21.3% | 0% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -28.9% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -34.2% |