Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa70e…b02a other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$187 (-20%) realized −$204 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$74
sports 44% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-72.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +82.5% +65.1% 100% 100% +65.1%
≤30d 2 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% +10.6%
≤90d 5 -63.5% -67.0% 20% 20% -52.4%
all 6 -69.6% -72.5% 17% 17% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.5% 17% -57.8%
10% -75.1% 17% -61.8%
15% -77.5% 17% -65.5%
20% -79.7% 17% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$59 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage111d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $103 $128 +$25 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $100 −$10 (-9%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 50¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$84 +82%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 19¢ $51 25d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $113 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $96 29d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29d
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas BUY Zalgiris Kaunas 31¢ $102 47d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 49d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY No 67¢ $20 110d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY No 71¢ $25 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.84 · official $529.84 (match) · 44 history records