Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa70e…5f67 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$1
other 21% $0
tech 16% $0
crypto 5% $0
world 5% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage117d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 30 $96 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $96 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $96 14h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 5d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 5d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 28d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $97 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $97 33d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $97 39d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $97 40d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 45d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 46d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $97 47d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $97 49d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $97 52d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $97 53d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 73d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 73d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 77d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 77d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 84d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 84d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $98 86d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $98 87d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 92d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 93d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records