Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa70c…72f7 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,051 (+27%) realized +$6,045 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,022per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days−$682
30 days−$533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$6,053
other 12% −$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 7 +11.9% +1.2% 57% 57% -60.6%
≤90d 20 +3.2% -6.6% 75% 30% +15.2%
all 20 +3.2% -6.6% 75% 30% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 30% +15.2%
10% -15.6% 25% +4.1%
15% -23.7% 20% -5.9%
20% -31.2% 20% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$512) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$478 vs −$226 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.35 per $1 lost it wins $6.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized+$6,045
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage93d
Avg bet$1,022
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $294 $291 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $51 $60 +$9 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$12 +13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $108 −$106 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $588 −$588 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $32 +$68 +212%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -96%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 03 $58 +$50 +85%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $59 +$42 +72%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $9,099 +$4,886 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $7,084 +$2,107 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $511 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $501 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $499 −$18 -4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 29 $519 +$1 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 20 $406 −$406 -100%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 19 $512 +$1 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Jazz Apr 16 $512 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $512 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 07 $511 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 04 $510 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $298 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $91 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $108 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $8 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $2 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $47 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $126 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $31 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $14 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $40 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $9 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $4 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $3 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $47 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $19 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $1 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $9 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $9 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $14 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $19 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $94 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $20 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $2 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $16 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $9 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $5 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $2 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $36 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $32 16d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.84 · official $350.84 (match) · 285 history records