Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa70b…fe50 other 20 markets active 4d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-19%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$3
other 31% −$13
crypto 10% −$4
world 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 27% -21.4%
≤30d 15 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 27% -21.4%
≤90d 20 -22.0% -29.4% 35% 20% -29.0%
all 20 -22.0% -29.4% 35% 20% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 20% -29.0%
10% -36.2% 15% -35.8%
15% -42.3% 5% -42.0%
20% -48.0% 5% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 57¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 47¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 95¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 97¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 70¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 13¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 11¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records