Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa70b…464f crypto 351 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%212W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$5
14 days−$13
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$137
sports 3% −$53
other 1% −$74
politics 1% +$28
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +6.4% -3.7% 72% 69% -9.8%
≤30d 74 +2.0% -7.7% 69% 66% -13.9%
≤90d 351 -3.7% -12.9% 60% 58% -13.3%
all 351 -3.7% -12.9% 60% 58% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 58% -13.3%
10% -21.2% 49% -21.6%
15% -28.8% 36% -29.1%
20% -35.8% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses212 / 139
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage43d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 351 Trades
no open positions (96 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$40 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $192 −$77 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$31 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$31 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$21 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $41 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $36 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $30 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $36 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $32 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $33 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $61 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 809 history records