Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa709…91ef crypto 1117 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (290 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,176 (+25%) realized +$13,198 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%622W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day290.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (290 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1009 +3.6% -6.3% 55% 53% -11.4%
≤30d 1116 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 54% -9.4%
≤90d 1116 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 54% -9.4%
all 1116 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 54% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover290.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 54% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 49% -18.1%
15% -22.7% 40% -26.0%
20% -30.3% 32% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$30 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13,198
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses622 / 494
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1116 / 1117
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day290.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$42 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$18 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$46 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$58 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$62 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $139 −$39 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $113 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$52 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$25 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$57 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$22 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$59 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $153 −$57 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$42 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$22 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $361 −$95 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$44 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $74 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $13 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $59 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $3.54 · 3500 history records