Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A7 0xa706…dd9b sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$516 (+119%) realized +$516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$429
other 7% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +76.7% +59.8% 50% 50% +78.8%
≤30d 6 +76.7% +59.8% 50% 50% +78.8%
≤90d 6 +76.7% +59.8% 50% 50% +78.8%
all 6 +76.7% +59.8% 50% 50% +78.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.8% 50% +78.8%
10% +44.5% 50% +61.7%
15% +30.6% 50% +46.1%
20% +17.8% 50% +31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +98% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$27 · ×6.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.16 per $1 lost it wins $6.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $93 −$73 -78%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $93 +$225 +242%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $123 +$158 +128%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $62 +$122 +198%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$7 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 14h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records