Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa706…4b9e sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,190 (-9%) realized −$2,200 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%71W / 57L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$120
14 days−$95
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,319
other 1% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.1% -6.7% 63% 63% -15.3%
≤30d 61 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 56% -8.4%
≤90d 101 +5.3% -4.8% 62% 55% -10.9%
all 128 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 50% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% -17.8%
10% -17.6% 41% -25.7%
15% -25.5% 38% -32.9%
20% -32.8% 33% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$150 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$2,200
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses71 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage133d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 50¢ 71¢ $25 $36 +$10 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Daniel Altmaier vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $80 +$19 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $63 +$37 +59%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $64 −$35 -55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $197 +$103 +52%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $87 +$63 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $115 −$11 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $161 +$64 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $322 −$320 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $129 −$128 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 +$39 +65%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$39 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$39 +65%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $104 +$45 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $107 +$43 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $124 +$26 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $77 +$11 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $49 +$8 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $57 +$43 +76%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $126 +$12 +9%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $56 +$44 +79%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 11 $117 +$83 +70%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Spread: Russia (-2.5) Jun 10 $215 +$7 +3%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $17 +$13 +79%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $57 +$42 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $158 −$158 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $79 −$78 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 08 $16 −$16 -99%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 08 $128 +$22 +17%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $127 +$23 +18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $65 −$64 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $28 +$72 +262%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $160 +$57 +36%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $121 −$120 -99%
Marta Kostyuk vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $48 −$47 -98%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 04 $53 +$47 +90%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $141 −$140 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $149 +$51 +34%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $95 +$104 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $25 7m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 89¢ $44 17m
Daniel Altmaier vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $100 26m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 61¢ $30 39m
Daniel Altmaier vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 80¢ $80 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 34¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $63 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 29¢ $28 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $64 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $87 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $59 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 70¢ $104 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 76¢ $115 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $161 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $322 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $129 4d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 59¢ $60 4d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $61 4d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 SELL Yes $3 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 60¢ $61 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 87¢ $37 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 76¢ $32 5d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $56 6d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $53 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $150 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $104 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $107 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.50 · official $39.25 · 275 history records