Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa704…94a5 crypto 520 markets active 7h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%338W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$94
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -1.9% -11.2% 67% 52% -12.1%
≤30d 520 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 45% -14.1%
≤90d 520 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 45% -14.1%
all 520 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 45% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 26% -22.4%
15% -27.5% 13% -29.9%
20% -34.6% 7% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses338 / 182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)520 / 520
History coverage25d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 520 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1135 history records