Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa704…11c1 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,128 (-5%) realized −$4,191 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%65W / 34L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$825per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$614est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$3,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$3,485
other 12% −$3,440
world 2% +$101
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +5.5% -4.6% 75% 65% +4.3%
≤30d 93 -7.6% -16.4% 66% 44% -9.4%
≤90d 93 -7.6% -16.4% 66% 44% -9.4%
all 99 -6.5% -15.4% 66% 45% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 45% -9.4%
10% -23.5% 24% -18.1%
15% -30.9% 12% -26.0%
20% -37.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$405 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$3,062
Realized−$4,191
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses65 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$614
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage135d
Avg bet$825
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 74¢ $3,000 $3,062 +$63 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,019 +$775 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,022 +$926 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France Jun 17 $3,939 +$4,040 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,403 +$101 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,920 −$888 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1,505 +$185 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,992 +$761 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $944 +$138 +15%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,002 −$1,053 -53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$78 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $870 +$125 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $712 +$152 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,009 −$133 -13%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $504 +$147 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $502 +$87 +17%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Venezuela? Jun 10 $1,001 +$44 +4%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1,003 +$97 +10%
Croatia vs. Bulgaria: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $303 +$118 +39%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1,008 +$366 +36%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$55 +54%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1,007 +$323 +32%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $853 +$112 +13%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $802 +$68 +8%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $8 +$2 +25%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $501 +$42 +8%
FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $906 −$300 -33%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $351 −$350 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $505 −$500 -99%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $695 +$183 +26%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $1,006 −$311 -31%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $603 −$600 -99%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1,006 +$243 +24%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $705 −$705 -100%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $502 +$74 +15%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $502 +$77 +15%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $906 +$234 +26%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $906 −$270 -30%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1,008 −$30 -3%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1,006 +$222 +22%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $486 −$178 -37%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $502 +$66 +13%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $127 −$127 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $506 −$31 -6%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $957 +$443 +46%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $507 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3,025 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,794 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3,019 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $3,022 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France BUY 48¢ $3,890 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France SELL 49¢ $49 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France BUY 48¢ $50 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $1,504 40h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 93¢ $1,403 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,009 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,032 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,920 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,006 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL No 99¢ $1,691 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 88¢ $1,505 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,753 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,992 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,012 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,082 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $944 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $950 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2,002 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,080 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,002 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $995 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $870 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,062.50 · official $3,062.50 (match) · 203 history records