Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa700…102b sports 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$4,624 (+11%) realized +$4,624 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%154W / 133L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day101.6pace
Fees−$956est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,003
7 days+$3,580
14 days+$4,170
30 days+$4,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$2,427
other 14% +$1,521
world 1% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +120.1% +99.1% 59% 37% +6.8%
≤30d 287 +51.5% +37.1% 54% 31% +2.9%
≤90d 287 +51.5% +37.1% 54% 31% +2.9%
all 287 +51.5% +37.1% 54% 31% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.1% 31% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +23.9% 22% -7.0%
15% +12.0% 18% -16.0%
20% +1.0% 15% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +92% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$20 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,624
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses154 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$956
Open positions0
Markets (closed)287 / 287
History coverage25d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day101.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 287 Trades
no open positions (140 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $540 +$422 +78%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $750 −$25 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $153 −$84 -55%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$9 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $93 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $320 −$10 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $144 −$4 -3%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$11 +458%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 +$823 +274%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $512 −$36 -7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 +$440 +1672%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $114 −$3 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $697 +$531 +76%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,121 +$1,072 +96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,218 −$113 -5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $125 +$51 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $501 +$25 +5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $37 −$5 -14%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 +$2 +474%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $139 −$5 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 −$46 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $323 +$11 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $167 +$4 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $150 +$4 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $487 +$4 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$4 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$21 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $609 +$243 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $238 −$221 -93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3,509 +$23 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $176 +$41 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $125 +$7 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $206 −$80 -39%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,129 +$106 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $27 +$3 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $685 +$23 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $229 +$100 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $74 58m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $8 58m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $45 58m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $33 58m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $45 58m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $63 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 29¢ $96 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 45¢ $56 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 42¢ $7 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $23 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $27 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $20 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $96 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $20 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $6 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $4 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $24 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 53¢ $41 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 52¢ $11 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 54¢ $29 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $37 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $38 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $62 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2562 history records