Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa6fc…0d90 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$582 (-1%) realized −$583 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$886per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$251
politics 26% −$29
sports 17% −$299
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 50 -2.1% -11.4% 6% 0% -10.8%
all 123 +2.2% -7.5% 18% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 13% -10.0%
10% -16.4% 13% -18.6%
15% -24.4% 11% -26.5%
20% -31.8% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,052) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$16 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$896
Realized−$583
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage132d
Avg bet$886
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $539 $540 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $356 $356 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 27 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 26 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,130 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $863 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,061 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $873 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,065 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $773 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,413 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $209 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $212 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $300 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $315 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $417 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 08 $410 $0 -0%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $2,090 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $3,231 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,908 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $824 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,101 −$2 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,791 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $950 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $2,613 −$3 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $5,134 −$5 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $3,628 −$5 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $783 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $356 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $457 2h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $458 5h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $483 26h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $484 29h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $452 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $452 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $489 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $469 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $470 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $422 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $422 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $539 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $916 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $806 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $807 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $755 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $756 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $872 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $873 20d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $724 21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $726 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $628 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $629 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.90 · official $895.90 (match) · 404 history records