Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6eb…21b9 politics 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$195 (+3%) realized +$200 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate19%21W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days+$290
14 days+$291
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$17
other 29% +$238
politics 24% +$2
economics 6% −$4
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$7
sports 2% −$16
culture 1% −$18
finance 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.7% +8.3% 20% 20% +21.8%
≤30d 48 -6.8% -15.7% 17% 8% +4.0%
≤90d 102 -11.5% -20.0% 18% 6% -6.2%
all 111 -13.3% -21.6% 19% 5% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 5% -6.9%
10% -29.1% 5% -15.8%
15% -35.9% 5% -23.9%
20% -42.2% 4% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 91% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$7 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses21 / 90
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 115
History coverage157d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $416 $419 +$4 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $115 $112 −$4 (-3%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $229 +$321 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $163 −$160 -98%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 22 202 Jun 22 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 22 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 22 $6 $0 -6%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 22 $2 $0 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $128 +$372 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 06 $0 $0 -3%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $6 $0 -7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 06 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 06 $9 −$4 -39%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -19%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $15 −$4 -24%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 06 $8 $0 -5%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $45 −$1 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $241 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 02 $19 $0 -2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 02 $26 $0 -2%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Ma May 29 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? May 29 $9 $0 -2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 29 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 29 $10 −$1 -14%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 29 $1 $0 -68%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May? May 29 $0 $0 +3%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May? May 29 $6 $0 -4%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 23 $0 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $421 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $118 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $163 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $229 2d
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 22 202 SELL No 61¢ $7 4d
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 84¢ $1 4d
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 85¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 77¢ $38 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 77¢ $38 4d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 22 202 SELL No 70¢ $4 4d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No $2 4d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No $2 4d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 22 202 SELL No 70¢ $2 4d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of June 22 202 BUY No 71¢ $14 4d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $128 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $244 6d
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele SELL Yes 93¢ $1 9d
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY Yes 93¢ $1 9d
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL Yes 18¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.49 · official $534.49 (match) · 375 history records