Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6eb…06e5 crypto 1890 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$100 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%1044W / 844L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day62.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$14
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$81
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 407 +2.8% -7.0% 61% 61% -5.9%
≤30d 1766 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 55% -14.5%
≤90d 1888 -1.0% -10.5% 55% 55% -12.4%
all 1888 -1.0% -10.5% 55% 55% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 55% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 54% -20.8%
15% -26.8% 50% -28.4%
20% -34.0% 43% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1044 / 844
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1888 / 1890
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day62.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1888 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 63¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 375 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.94 (match) · 3500 history records