Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6ea…b02a world 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,453 (-14%) realized −$5,447 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%51W / 228L
Whale WR16%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$164
14 days−$199
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$1,452
other 15% −$1,979
culture 12% −$4,092
finance 5% −$534
sports 2% −$232
crypto 1% +$129
politics 1% −$115
economics 0% −$56
tech 0% −$45
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.6% -40.8% 27% 18% -28.4%
≤30d 30 -25.0% -32.2% 27% 20% -18.5%
≤90d 77 -7.8% -16.6% 25% 19% -18.9%
all 279 -29.6% -36.3% 18% 13% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 13% -22.6%
10% -42.4% 9% -30.0%
15% -48.0% 9% -36.8%
20% -53.1% 8% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 16% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$58 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$5,447
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses51 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)279 / 280
History coverage153d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $17 $12 −$6 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 25 $78 +$18 +23%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $35 −$19 -54%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $50 −$28 -56%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 24 $18 −$4 -22%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $221 +$46 +21%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $118 +$4 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $180 −$94 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $521 −$39 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $276 −$11 -4%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 13 $70 +$14 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,268 −$74 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $469 −$4 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $174 +$201 +116%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 01 $187 −$48 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $137 −$41 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 01 $270 −$270 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $173 +$19 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $587 −$76 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $86 +$12 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $244 +$11 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $48 +$485 +1008%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 22 $43 −$35 -81%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $160 −$77 -48%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 06 $2 −$1 -73%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 04 $60 +$28 +47%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 03 $86 +$13 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 02 $365 −$36 -10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $160 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 26 $271 −$124 -46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $1,073 −$35 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $66 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $105 +$60 +58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $138 −$69 -50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $248 +$154 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $47 −$18 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $286 −$223 -78%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 18 $175 +$52 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $118 −$5 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $45 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $32 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $47 18h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 18h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 25h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 44h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 45h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.62 · official $11.67 (match) · 2322 history records