Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e6…d5b8 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,671 (-17%) realized −$8,818 · open +$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,489per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days−$14,094
14 days−$12,838
30 days−$8,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$9,239
other 4% +$528
sports 2% +$128
finance 2% +$73
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.8% -31.9% 50% 30% -75.0%
≤30d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 76% 38% -27.8%
≤90d 32 -15.5% -23.5% 59% 31% -26.9%
all 32 -15.5% -23.5% 59% 31% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 31% -26.9%
10% -30.8% 19% -33.9%
15% -37.5% 12% -40.2%
20% -43.6% 3% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,121) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$1,211 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,481
Realized−$8,818
Unrealized+$147
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage39d
Avg bet$1,489
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1,210 $1,336 +$126 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 90¢ $124 $145 +$21 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,475 +$27 +2%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $603 +$102 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $403 +$26 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $600 +$247 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $1,090 −$252 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10,997 −$10,197 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,283 −$2,283 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,773 −$1,771 -64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$11 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$405 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,000 +$46 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $973 +$87 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $9,005 +$718 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 03 $35 +$2 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 03 $865 +$70 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,997 +$1,739 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $270 +$32 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,024 +$2,281 +113%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,121 +$59 +5%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $17 +$6 +37%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 20 $1,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $999 +$11 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $400 −$12 -3%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $252 49m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $701 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $705 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $512 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $62 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $603 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $200 8h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 85¢ $428 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $529 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $500 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $847 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $55 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $55 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 71¢ $600 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $4 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $603 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $2 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 11¢ $22 30h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $300 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 26¢ $50 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 69¢ $378 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $440 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 65¢ $438 30h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $403 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $600 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $1,011 31h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $320 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,480.67 · official $1,479.33 (match) · 96 history records