Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A6 0xa6e6…8f4b sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+15%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$63
other 37% −$10
culture 2% −$7
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +47.9% +33.9% 67% 67% +30.0%
≤30d 8 +28.1% +15.9% 62% 62% +25.3%
≤90d 11 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 45% +9.0%
all 11 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 45% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 45% +9.0%
10% -23.8% 45% -1.4%
15% -31.2% 45% -10.9%
20% -37.9% 18% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage31d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 +$23 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$53 +206%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the R May 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $18 48m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 53m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 47¢ $19 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $20 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $50 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $22 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 42h
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 65 on the R BUY Yes 12¢ $7 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? SELL No 39¢ $7 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? BUY No 27¢ $5 27d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 22¢ $9 30d
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 30d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.92 · official $98.93 (match) · 21 history records