Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e5…1fea other 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 24% −$26
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$7
economics 7% −$4
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 82 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 191 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $387 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $287 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $263 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $357 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $150 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $45 6h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $45 7h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $8 9h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $8 11h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 14h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 18h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 19h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 22h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 24h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 26h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 30h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 33h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 35h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 36h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 37h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $46 39h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 40h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1335 history records