Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa6e3…681b crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$256 (+4%) realized −$409 · open +$665
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$381
7 days−$381
14 days−$406
30 days−$597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$463
sports 8% −$298
crypto 3% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -99.0% -99.1% 0% 0% -99.8%
≤30d 9 -64.5% -67.9% 22% 22% -75.4%
≤90d 9 -64.5% -67.9% 22% 22% -75.4%
all 13 -31.6% -38.1% 38% 38% -74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 38% -74.1%
10% -44.1% 31% -76.6%
15% -49.5% 31% -78.9%
20% -54.4% 23% -80.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$87 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$3,430
Realized−$409
Unrealized+$665
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage135d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $2,765 $3,430 +$665 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $108 −$107 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$24 -46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $193 −$190 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $207 −$13 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $290 −$289 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 +$98 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 14 $2 +$3 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $193 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,833 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,867 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,972 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $290 14d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $192 14d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $197 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,430.31 · official $3,430.31 (match) · 39 history records