Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e3…3fe8 other 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34,716 (-31%) realized −$34,702 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%107W / 165L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$633est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,092
7 days+$2,341
14 days−$39,274
30 days−$32,267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$32,250
other 42% −$5,480
politics 1% +$3,053
world 1% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +24.0% +12.1% 33% 33% +33.4%
≤30d 25 +20.5% +9.0% 44% 44% -58.3%
≤90d 272 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 39% -38.1%
all 272 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 39% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 39% -38.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 39% -44.0%
15% -25.4% 38% -49.4%
20% -32.7% 37% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$470 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$810
Realized−$34,702
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses107 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$633
Open positions2
Markets (closed)272 / 274
History coverage82d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $418 $407 −$11 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $406 $402 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,008 +$1,092 +108%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $455 −$101 -22%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $527 −$524 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $365 −$357 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $363 −$353 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,032 +$588 +57%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $476 +$2,724 +572%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 23 $368 −$368 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 23 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $877 −$862 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $41,592 −$41,480 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,274 +$726 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $505 +$1,395 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $462 −$456 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $615 −$601 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $522 +$278 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $741 +$559 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $233 +$281 +120%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $396 +$234 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 05 $506 −$501 -99%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,080 +$3,053 +283%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 03 $175 −$175 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,751 +$4,004 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,043 −$1,030 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $299 −$34 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 25 $546 −$544 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $551 +$1,119 +203%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 24 $204 +$536 +262%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $585 +$715 +122%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$6 +127%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $528 −$528 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $296 −$296 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $447 +$823 +184%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $454 +$346 +76%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $203 +$97 +48%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $461 −$451 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $308 −$300 -98%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $178 −$177 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $297 +$363 +122%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $306 −$301 -98%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $313 −$313 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $162 −$159 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $305 −$299 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $551 −$551 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $228 +$172 +75%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $675 −$672 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $707 −$700 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $418 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $411 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $358 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $3 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $18 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $4 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $4 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $2 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $48 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $140 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $70 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $44 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $11 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $7 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $18 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $26 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $4 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $3 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $4 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $18 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $11 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $126 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $4 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $3 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $18 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $809.50 · official $809.50 (match) · 1876 history records