Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa6e3…fcc3 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$27
other 31% +$1
politics 2% +$8
culture 1% +$6
sports 1% +$11
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 28 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -1.4% -10.8% 19% 3% -9.8%
all 84 +11.9% +1.2% 44% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 7% -9.5%
10% -8.4% 6% -18.2%
15% -17.3% 5% -26.1%
20% -25.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage484d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $142 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $144 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $68 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $271 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $143 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $146 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $252 −$9 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $277 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,313 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $135 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $417 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $155 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $156 −$15 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $155 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $78 −$3 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $196 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $47 +$8 +18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $16 −$2 -15%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $957 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $960 −$3 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $1 +$9 +1090%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $3 $0 +6%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 24 $0 $0 +50%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jun 23 $1 $0 -30%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 27 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $128 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $124 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $142 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $131 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $132 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $130 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $71 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $59 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $102 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $120 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $130 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $130 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $144 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $144 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $68 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $38 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $26 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.93 · official $126.92 (match) · 285 history records