Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa6e2…fa8f crypto 1647 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,382 (+14%) realized +$2,379 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%863W / 782L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -42.0% -47.6% 33% 33% -47.3%
≤30d 585 -26.7% -33.7% 39% 39% -25.1%
≤90d 1645 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 52% -9.0%
all 1645 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 52% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 52% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 52% -17.7%
15% -29.6% 50% -25.7%
20% -36.5% 48% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$2,379
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses863 / 782
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1645 / 1647
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Up 56¢ 58¢ $84 $88 +$4 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 52¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$58 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $130 −$126 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $77 +$58 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$27 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$33 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $87 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $82 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $130 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $77 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $34 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $30 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.93 · official $92.93 (match) · 3500 history records