Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6e1…200d crypto 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$140 (-4%) realized −$127 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%87W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$106
sports 10% −$37
other 5% −$64
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -10.0% -18.5% 62% 43% -14.6%
≤30d 141 -10.0% -18.5% 62% 43% -14.6%
≤90d 141 -10.0% -18.5% 62% 43% -14.6%
all 141 -10.0% -18.5% 62% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 43% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 26% -22.8%
15% -33.4% 16% -30.2%
20% -40.0% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses87 / 54
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)141 / 148
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $20 $15 −$4 (-22%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 17¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $82 −$40 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $96 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$11 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$8 +10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$12 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$18 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $153 +$17 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$14 -53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 20m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 20m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 52m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.56 · official $47.46 (match) · 423 history records