Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d9…68a3 sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,235 (+2%) realized +$2,215 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate72%56W / 22L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,067per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2,166
world 24% −$484
sports 16% +$542
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 32 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 19% -16.0%
all 78 -4.5% -13.6% 72% 29% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 29% -7.6%
10% -21.9% 21% -16.5%
15% -29.4% 15% -24.5%
20% -36.3% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$164 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized+$2,215
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses56 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions19
Markets (closed)78 / 99
History coverage252d
Avg bet$1,067
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $170 $189 +$19 (+11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 21 $26,979 +$19 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $2 $0 +7%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-10? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 $0 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $2 $0 +4%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Tyler Zink May 16 $2 $0 +1%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Silkeborg IF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina May 11 $2 $0 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $2 $0 +11%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $2 $0 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Viktorija Golubic vs Mirra Andreeva May 10 $2 $0 +5%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $2 $0 +18%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $3 +$2 +73%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $533 −$13 -2%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $2 $0 +10%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds May 09 $2 +$1 +34%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $700 −$700 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $400 −$52 -13%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $500 +$320 +64%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $500 +$69 +14%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 19 $300 −$113 -38%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $146 −$9 -6%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $1,001 −$114 -11%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 10 $2,000 $0 -0%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $500 +$2 +0%
Cowboys vs. Giants Jan 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $130 −$54 -41%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $462 −$227 -49%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 01 $4 $0 +1%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jan 01 $195 $0 +0%
Another Canada election called in 2025? Jan 01 $304 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $7,107 +$8 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 01 $21,825 +$11 +0%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $17,413 +$17 +0%
Will the match end in a draw or not be completed? Dec 31 $3,388 +$58 +2%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5,922 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $120 2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 16¢ $21 28h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 60¢ $20 28h
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY No 93¢ $2 31d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 31d
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 97¢ $2 31d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 96¢ $2 36d
Geneva Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Tyler Zink BUY Raul Brancaccio 99¢ $2 36d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 96¢ $2 36d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 36d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $2 41d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $2 41d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $2 41d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $2 41d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 99¢ $2 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.82 · official $379.93 · 602 history records