Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d8…0f59 sports 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-7%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%73W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$19
other 11% −$4
politics 4% −$20
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 7 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 90% 10% -10.0%
all 196 -17.3% -25.2% 37% 33% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 33% -15.8%
10% -32.4% 30% -23.9%
15% -38.9% 29% -31.2%
20% -44.9% 25% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses73 / 123
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage645d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 18 $2 $0 +5%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. Kings Mar 14 $2 +$2 +70%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Nets vs. 76ers Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 10 $2 +$1 +37%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 10 $3 +$6 +234%
Nets vs. Pistons Mar 10 $3 +$17 +619%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 07 $3 $0 +18%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 07 $4 +$1 +16%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 07 $3 +$2 +45%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 07 $3 +$3 +100%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Suns Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. Clippers Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Feb 28 $2 +$3 +150%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 28 $4 +$1 +27%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 28 $4 +$5 +133%
Hornets vs. Bulls Feb 28 $7 +$2 +33%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Feb 28 $12 +$4 +35%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Nets vs. Hawks Feb 22 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Feb 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 7d
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of BUY Yes 100¢ $1 7d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 7d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 11d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 12d
76ers vs. Nuggets BUY 76ers 10¢ $1 89d
Pistons vs. Wizards BUY Pistons 95¢ $2 89d
Grizzlies vs. Bulls BUY Grizzlies 29¢ $2 90d
Warriors vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 26¢ $3 90d
Jazz vs. Kings BUY Kings 59¢ $1 91d
Pacers vs. Bucks BUY Pacers 28¢ $2 91d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $2 92d
Nets vs. 76ers BUY Nets 23¢ $1 92d
Wizards vs. Celtics BUY Wizards $1 92d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 34¢ $2 93d
Suns vs. Raptors BUY Suns 36¢ $2 93d
Bucks vs. Heat BUY Bucks 33¢ $3 94d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Wizards 11¢ $3 94d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Raptors 56¢ $3 95d
Pacers vs. Kings BUY Kings 59¢ $2 96d
Timberwolves vs. Lakers BUY Timberwolves 55¢ $2 96d
Suns vs. Bucks BUY Suns 54¢ $3 97d
Warriors vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 30¢ $3 97d
Grizzlies vs. Nets BUY Grizzlies 51¢ $3 97d
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Pacers 23¢ $2 98d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Pistons 53¢ $3 98d
Knicks vs. Lakers BUY Knicks 59¢ $3 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 280 history records