Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d3…1a2a crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$148
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.9% -32.9% 50% 42% -45.9%
≤30d 12 -25.9% -32.9% 50% 42% -45.9%
≤90d 17 -32.1% -38.5% 47% 41% -45.9%
all 17 -32.1% -38.5% 47% 41% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 41% -45.9%
10% -44.4% 35% -51.1%
15% -49.8% 24% -55.8%
20% -54.7% 18% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage52d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET Up 79¢ 90¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+14%)
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 90¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $111 −$108 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $60 +$43 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $23 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $55 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $34 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.43 · official $32.43 (match) · 55 history records