Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d3…345e crypto 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-3%) realized −$235 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%144W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$136
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$540
other 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 57% -22.4%
≤30d 28 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 57% -22.4%
≤90d 251 -5.0% -14.0% 57% 51% -17.0%
all 251 -5.0% -14.0% 57% 51% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 51% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 40% -24.9%
15% -29.8% 28% -32.2%
20% -36.6% 20% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses144 / 107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 253
History coverage78d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 47¢ 58¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $70 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$40 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$15 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 12 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 12 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 12 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 12 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 10 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 10 $25 +$25 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 10 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 10 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$7 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $72 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $62 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $40 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $46 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $16 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $43 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.28 · official $57.15 · 1728 history records