Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6d3…118e weather 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+6%) realized +$4 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%17W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day73.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -19.2% -26.9% 27% 27% -9.4%
≤30d 63 -19.2% -26.9% 27% 27% -9.4%
≤90d 63 -19.2% -26.9% 27% 27% -9.4%
all 63 -19.2% -26.9% 27% 27% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 27% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 25% -18.1%
15% -40.3% 24% -26.0%
20% -46.1% 21% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 46
Open positions67
Markets (closed)63 / 130
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day73.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $12 $30 +$18 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $11 $28 +$17 (+149%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $11 $27 +$16 (+144%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 97¢ $1 $24 +$23 (+1832%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $9 $23 +$14 (+151%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $12 $15 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 40¢ 53¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 39¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 47¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 51¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 45¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 31¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$15 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 +$29 +267%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$15 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$21 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$21 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$22 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$21 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$22 +314%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$12 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$7 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $13 +$11 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.91 · official $495.93 (match) · 244 history records