Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa6d1…286a sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10,040 (-3%) realized −$9,684 · open −$356
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,742per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$3,378est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$35,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$64,810
other 36% −$20,303
world 0% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.9% -4.2% 55% 55% +3.1%
≤30d 45 +16.6% +5.5% 58% 56% +3.1%
≤90d 45 +16.6% +5.5% 58% 56% +3.1%
all 45 +16.6% +5.5% 58% 56% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 56% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 53% -6.7%
15% -13.8% 53% -15.7%
20% -22.3% 53% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,160) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,734 vs −$6,874 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$35,979
Realized−$9,684
Unrealized−$356
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,378
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7,742
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $36,335 $35,979 −$356 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $44,490 +$55,656 +125%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,160 +$3,840 +92%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12,425 −$8,602 -69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22,257 −$21,948 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $18,349 −$18,057 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50,947 +$35,668 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43,074 −$42,525 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43,317 +$58,054 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,492 +$1,508 +101%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $8,959 +$1,080 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26,707 −$26,336 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3,025 −$162 -5%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $254 +$246 +97%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,418 +$1,082 +76%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $25 $0 -1%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $144 +$110 +76%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $522 −$522 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,494 −$1,289 -86%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 07 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,472 +$1,282 +87%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1,273 +$1,011 +79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $249 +$251 +101%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $179 +$221 +124%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1,394 −$1,375 -99%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $2,590 −$2,559 -99%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $295 −$290 -98%
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) Jun 05 $510 −$10 -2%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $910 −$895 -98%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $403 −$400 -99%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $8,195 +$4,215 +51%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1,994 +$6 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $1,366 +$1,544 +113%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1,028 +$977 +95%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $766 +$734 +96%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $695 +$752 +108%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $607 +$393 +65%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,259 +$2,058 +91%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $1,372 +$1,895 +138%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $228 +$231 +101%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $117 −$115 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $57 +$55 +97%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $497 +$503 +101%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,148 +$1,705 +79%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $4,827 −$4,760 -99%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $526 −$518 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10,994 14m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25,875 54m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 53¢ $537 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 53¢ $537 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $517 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $1,035 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $517 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $508 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $508 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $8,027 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $17,896 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $11,777 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 41¢ $6,790 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,017 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $10,408 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $22,257 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $18,349 26h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,156 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $103 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $103 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $103 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $103 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $130 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $132 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $132 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $138 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $136 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $142 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $142 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $145 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,978.72 · official $35,978.72 (match) · 276 history records