Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa6cd…f008 sports 819 markets active 17h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$265 (-8%) realized −$262 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%243W / 534L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$31
14 days+$57
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$245
other 1% −$7
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.1% -7.7% 37% 37% +24.9%
≤30d 182 +27.3% +15.2% 39% 39% -28.3%
≤90d 469 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 31% -17.4%
all 777 -4.8% -13.9% 31% 31% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 31% -17.2%
10% -22.1% 31% -25.1%
15% -29.6% 31% -32.4%
20% -36.5% 30% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$262
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses243 / 534
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions28
Markets (closed)777 / 819
History coverage120d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 777 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 33¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 25¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Harriet Dart 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Maria Sakkari 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Tereza Valentova 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Maya Joint 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina Lulu Sun 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Sara Bejlek 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Yunchaokete Bu 48¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Yes 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Lois Boisson 24¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 +$3 +302%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$6 +184%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 +$31 +275%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $2 +$3 +165%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $1 +$5 +474%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 09 $2 +$2 +109%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $2 +$4 +215%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 99¢ $4 17h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 24¢ $1 17h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $1 17h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 39¢ $1 17h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 27¢ $1 17h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 40¢ $1 17h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $1 17h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 28¢ $1 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 34¢ $1 17h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Lulu Sun 13¢ $1 17h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Top Esports Challenger 11¢ $1 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $9 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $1 23h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 30¢ $1 24h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 16¢ $1 24h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 35¢ $1 25h
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Yunchaokete Bu 48¢ $1 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 18¢ $1 25h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 25¢ $1 25h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 46¢ $1 25h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 24¢ $1 25h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $1 25h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro BUY Sara Bejlek 28¢ $1 25h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 33¢ $1 25h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Sinja Kraus 43¢ $1 25h
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) BUY Raducanu 37¢ $1 25h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 42¢ $1 25h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 39¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.75 · official $25.75 (match) · 1155 history records