Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A6 0xa6cd…9ac1 other 8 markets active 2d ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$106
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$209
world 13% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.5% -10.8% 67% 67% +8.5%
≤30d 4 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 75% +12.9%
≤90d 5 +15.3% +4.3% 80% 80% +14.6%
all 8 -27.9% -34.8% 50% 50% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 50% -0.2%
10% -41.0% 50% -9.7%
15% -46.7% 50% -18.4%
20% -52.0% 0% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$54 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage146d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $214 +$107 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $216 +$99 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 +$63 +41%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 22 $101 +$40 +40%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Jan 30 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 30 $16 −$16 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $214 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $216 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $216 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $153 9d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL Yes 97¢ $141 35d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 51d
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 147d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 147d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records