Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6cc…947f other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-7%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$10
sports 21% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 40% -20.0%
≤30d 10 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 40% -20.0%
≤90d 10 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 40% -20.0%
all 10 -33.8% -40.1% 40% 40% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 40% -20.0%
10% -45.8% 30% -27.6%
15% -51.1% 20% -34.6%
20% -55.9% 20% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $24 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $20 37h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 37h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.78 · official $24.78 (match) · 18 history records