Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6c9…7863 sports 370 markets active 5d ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,206 (-17%) realized −$1,206 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate46%172W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$436
other 18% −$542
crypto 14% −$226
tech 2% −$10
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -17.0% -24.9% 35% 31% -17.9%
≤30d 26 -17.0% -24.9% 35% 31% -17.9%
≤90d 193 -9.4% -18.1% 34% 28% -19.3%
all 370 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 30% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 30% -25.4%
10% -26.6% 22% -32.5%
15% -33.7% 15% -39.0%
20% -40.2% 12% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses172 / 198
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)370 / 370
History coverage161d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 370 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +29%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$5 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 $0 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs K27 (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cu Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Miami Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Victoria Mboko Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Alexandra Eala vs Magda Linette Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Rei Sakamoto vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
USC Trojans vs. Clemson Tigers (W) Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Close Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs Sakura Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Open: Martin Damm vs Alexander Zverev Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Rockets Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HAVU (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 22 $4 +$9 +232%
Miami Open: Karolina Muchova vs Katie Boulter Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
James Madison Dukes vs. Kentucky Wildcats (W) Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Crashers vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Ser Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Southern Jaguars vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (W) Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco (Heavyweight, Prelims) Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza end in Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Cameron Norrie Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Miami Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Mar 21 $5 +$7 +142%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 70¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Federico Coria 80¢ $3 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $4 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $31 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 972 history records