Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6be…5bd2 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
politics 21% $0
other 14% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.3%
all 58 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage316d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $1 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $59 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $57 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $101 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $8 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 19 $8 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 18 $6 $0 -1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $65 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $59 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $59 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $38 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $42 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $66 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $66 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $6 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $53 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $53 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $59 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $59 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.90 · official $63.90 (match) · 337 history records