Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6bd…6bf4 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4
other 24% +$3
politics 13% +$1
sports 9% +$2
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 9% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 9% 9% -8.8%
all 51 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -8.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage465d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $37 +$4 +12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 22 $16 $0 +3%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will X buy TikTok? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 -8%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof May 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 29 $12 +$1 +5%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $27 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $11 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 02 $3 $0 -3%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 01 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $16 +$1 +10%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 21 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $15 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $22 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $38 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $37 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $37 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $41 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $37 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records