Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6bb…dc9d politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$1
other 26% −$1
sports 11% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage102d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $92 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $92 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $92 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $92 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 23h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 16d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $89 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 26d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 27d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $90 32d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $90 33d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $90 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $90 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $90 40d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $90 40d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $90 42d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 43d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $91 47d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $91 48d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 67d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 67d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 69d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $92 70d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $92 71d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $92 71d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 75d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 76d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 83d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 83d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 85d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records