Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa6b9…bdc8 sports 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 920d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%137W / 155L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$7
politics 28% −$43
economics 22% −$12
other 8% −$11
world 1% +$22
culture 0% −$2
finance 0% −$14
tech 0% +$14
crypto 0% −$3
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +27.7% +15.5% 65% 49% +3.4%
≤30d 195 +15.4% +4.4% 51% 39% -6.7%
≤90d 228 +12.6% +1.9% 51% 41% -1.0%
all 292 +7.9% -2.4% 47% 35% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 35% -9.6%
10% -11.7% 30% -18.2%
15% -20.2% 26% -26.1%
20% -28.1% 23% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

920d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses137 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions55
Markets (closed)292 / 347
History coverage920d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 39¢ 44¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 41¢ 51¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 28¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 47¢ 80¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+71%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 78¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 14¢ 27¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+97%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 63¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 36¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+78%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 66¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +133%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -18%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 12 $1 −$1 -90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$2 +117%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -11%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +42%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +15%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $2 +$2 +140%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +134%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 39¢ $1 55m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 10¢ $1 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 12¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 5h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $2 5h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 37¢ $2 8h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $3 8h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 8h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 8h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 9h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $4 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $2 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 53¢ $4 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3d
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 36¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.46 · official $146.51 (match) · 958 history records