Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa6b7…d5f3 world 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$18,853 (+10%) realized +$17,378 · open +$1,475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%171W / 106L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$16,734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,423
7 days+$6,687
14 days+$10,901
30 days+$7,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$9,335
politics 15% −$445
other 15% +$5,729
weather 4% −$4,034
crypto 4% +$43
sports 2% −$474
tech 2% +$487
finance 0% −$175
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +22.3% +10.6% 65% 48% +9.2%
≤30d 256 +10.2% -0.3% 63% 39% -5.3%
≤90d 277 +14.1% +3.2% 62% 40% -4.5%
all 277 +14.1% +3.2% 62% 40% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 40% -4.5%
10% -6.6% 30% -13.6%
15% ← realistic here -15.7% 23% -22.0%
20% -23.9% 19% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$573) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$185 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$16,734
Realized+$17,378
Unrealized+$1,475
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses171 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions80
Markets (closed)277 / 355
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$526
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $3,809 $4,157 +$348 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $2,298 $4,004 +$1,707 (+74%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 56¢ 72¢ $728 $929 +$201 (+28%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $697 $847 +$150 (+21%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $1,123 $812 −$311 (-28%)
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $440 $500 +$60 (+14%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $418 $406 −$11 (-3%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $354 $400 +$46 (+13%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 44¢ 66¢ $266 $394 +$128 (+48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $392 $356 −$36 (-9%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 55¢ 79¢ $238 $345 +$107 (+45%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $215 $221 +$5 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $196 $219 +$24 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 99¢ $136 $199 +$63 (+46%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $252 $177 −$75 (-30%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $160 $171 +$11 (+7%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $141 $153 +$11 (+8%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $125 $121 −$4 (-3%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $63 $107 +$43 (+69%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $96 $105 +$9 (+10%)
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 48¢ 51¢ $96 $102 +$6 (+6%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $85 $98 +$13 (+15%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 46¢ 22¢ $210 $97 −$113 (-54%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 55¢ 32¢ $164 $96 −$68 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 17 $4 +$2 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 −$24 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $29 −$28 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $969 +$125 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $38 +$12 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $162 −$90 -55%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? Jun 16 $119 +$11 +9%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$6 -10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $495 −$188 -38%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $161 +$164 +102%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 +$14 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9 +$11 +117%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$31 +158%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 +$20 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $1,038 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $103 +$84 +81%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $479 +$308 +64%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $214 +$4 +2%
Will Hasbulla attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$35 +344%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,957 +$1,005 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $561 +$768 +137%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +139%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $26 +$38 +146%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $572 +$308 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $942 +$565 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $797 +$83 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $45 +$55 +122%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,012 +$1,526 +151%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,146 +$486 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $336 +$299 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 43m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 43m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $67 43m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 45m
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 50¢ $50 47m
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 59¢ $88 48m
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 47¢ $47 48m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 76¢ $120 55m
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 56m
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 56m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 57m
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 65¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 19¢ $78 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $98 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $5 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $29 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $20 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $105 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $86 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 18¢ $27 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 80¢ $39 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 80¢ $3 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $72 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,733.60 · official $16,720.07 (match) · 3500 history records