Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa6b6…c21f other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 34% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 33 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $76 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $67 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +3%
Starmer out before July? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $17 $0 -1%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $17 $0 -0%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $16 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 32m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $33 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $36 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 44h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $6 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $31 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $36 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records