Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6b6…16d7 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 31% −$10
politics 7% +$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 51 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.4%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage448d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $86 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $88 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $40 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $45 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 28 $2 $0 -19%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $12 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 11 $2 $0 -24%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $14 $0 -2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $5 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will KSI win the match? Apr 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 01 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $43 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $43 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $36 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $8 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $23 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $39 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $40 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records