Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6b0…a23b sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$340 (-3%) realized −$340 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate86%18W / 3L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$425
culture 13% +$2
crypto 13% $0
other 2% +$88
politics 1% −$6
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 -7.8% -16.6% 83% 17% -24.1%
all 21 +26.3% +14.3% 86% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 19% -12.7%
10% +3.3% 14% -21.0%
15% -6.6% 14% -28.6%
20% -15.8% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$951) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$449 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses18 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage197d
Avg bet$433
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $344 −$342 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $344 +$1 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $339 +$5 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $224 +$115 +52%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 19 $221 +$2 +1%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 04 $832 +$1 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 03 $710 +$122 +17%
Will Su Yiming (CHN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men Feb 25 $12 +$87 +713%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Feb 11 $1,008 +$615 +61%
Will "Crazy, Stupid, Love" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Feb 04 $1,007 +$1 +0%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Feb 02 $954 +$53 +6%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jan 30 $951 +$3 +0%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jan 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? Jan 06 $326 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $67 $0 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $322 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $961 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 29d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $344 44d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 100¢ $344 66d
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies BUY Cavaliers 98¢ $339 79d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $224 88d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $221 98d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Magic 100¢ $832 113d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 100¢ $254 114d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 79¢ $456 114d
Will Su Yiming (CHN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Men BUY Yes 12¢ $12 127d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY T1 53¢ $1,000 130d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $1,008 135d
Will "Crazy, Stupid, Love" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 143d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner BUY Oh My God 95¢ $954 146d
Thunder vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 100¢ $951 146d
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi BUY Yes $6 162d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? BUY No 100¢ $326 171d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $322 178d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $67 178d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $92 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $480 193d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $961 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.94 · official $123.94 (match) · 43 history records