Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A6 0xa6ad…3575 sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-3%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%40W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$196
14 days−$125
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$14
crypto 13% −$24
other 2% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +34.5% +21.7% 70% 70% +12.3%
≤30d 71 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 55% -11.2%
≤90d 73 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 53% -12.0%
all 73 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 53% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 53% -12.0%
10% -19.4% 49% -20.5%
15% -27.2% 38% -28.2%
20% -34.4% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$33 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses40 / 33
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage76d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 53¢ 52¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) Jun 21 $39 +$33 +85%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $99 +$53 +53%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $105 −$56 -53%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $29 +$19 +66%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $50 +$66 +131%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $75 +$34 +46%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $19 +$25 +128%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $43 +$27 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $45 +$29 +64%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$8 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - Nort Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $40 −$5 -13%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $17 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$13 +311%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$19 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $77 +$38 +48%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $34 +$44 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $54 +$35 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $41 +$13 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $87 −$86 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$14 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$32 +79%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $65 +$25 +38%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $34 +$24 +70%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $39 −$39 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $103 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $38 +$12 +30%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$22 -72%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$27 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) SELL K27 100¢ $71 26m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $152 27m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 65¢ $99 59m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL Virtus.pro 27¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $49 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $49 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 59¢ $29 2h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) BUY K27 53¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $57 2h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Flame Team 99¢ $109 16h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 61¢ $30 17h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 42¢ $21 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 17h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 72¢ $44 18h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $44 18h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 43¢ $19 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $70 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $30 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 61¢ $43 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $73 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $45 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $45 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $38 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 35h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $31 35h
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - Nort SELL Wildcard Gaming 100¢ $61 35h
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - Nort BUY Wildcard Gaming 65¢ $40 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.54 · official $48.54 (match) · 148 history records