Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6ad…39b1 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (345 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$60 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day345.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (345 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 55% -10.7%
≤30d 47 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 55% -10.7%
≤90d 47 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 55% -10.7%
all 47 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 55% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover345.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 55% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 49% -19.2%
15% -31.5% 34% -27.1%
20% -38.2% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$44 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day345.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 68¢ 50¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$10 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +84%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $335 −$263 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$34 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$36 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $158 +$55 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $126 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $358 −$358 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $82 +$34 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $445 +$99 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $313 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $246 +$100 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $89 −$87 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$29 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $185 +$108 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $98 −$62 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $177 +$99 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $138 +$52 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $107 +$37 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $72 +$33 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$22 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$4 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $23 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $71 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.22 · official $10.22 (match) · 379 history records