Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
A6 0xa6ac…c69b sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$8,584 (+42%) realized +$7,496 · open +$1,088
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$6,074
crypto 21% +$1,436
sports 17% −$664
culture 3% −$705
world 1% +$2,365
tech 1% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+56.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.3% -17.1% 43% 43% -21.6%
≤30d 8 -19.8% -27.4% 38% 38% -60.4%
≤90d 17 +140.1% +117.2% 41% 41% +48.3%
all 43 +72.8% +56.4% 51% 49% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.4% 49% +23.3%
10% +41.4% 47% +11.5%
15% +27.7% 42% +0.7%
20% +15.2% 40% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +91% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +40% → late +104% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$571 vs −$240 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$2,457
Realized+$7,496
Unrealized+$1,088
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage274d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 64¢ $660 $1,270 +$610 (+92%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $600 $1,080 +$480 (+80%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 44¢ 42¢ $88 $85 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $89 −$88 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 +$93 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $426 −$418 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $152 +$241 +158%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $92 −$92 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $105 −$103 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $23 +$973 +4230%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 08 $143 −$143 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $208 +$1,392 +669%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Apr 07 $168 −$168 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 20 $96 +$204 +212%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Feb 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Feb 25 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $200 +$185 +92%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Feb 12 $94 +$106 +113%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 11 $116 +$84 +72%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $204 −$204 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 07 $760 −$220 -29%
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 13 $1,320 +$180 +14%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 19 $294 +$26 +9%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 25 $562 −$562 -100%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $500 +$2,001 +400%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $1,600 +$2,400 +150%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Nov 21 $40 +$57 +143%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Nov 21 $300 +$700 +233%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 19 $384 +$216 +56%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Nov 15 $1,317 +$439 +33%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 09 $900 −$900 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$225 +225%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 04 $4,270 +$1,432 +34%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,080 −$307 -28%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,500 +$1,410 +94%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $280 −$280 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Sep 19 $230 +$87 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $89 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $89 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $55 36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $60 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $56 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $61 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $426 17d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $44 49d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $44 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $81 58d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $152 58d
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $105 69d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $996 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $23 71d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Aston Villa FC 32¢ $96 89d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $435 93d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 93d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $52 93d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $164 93d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $128 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,456.69 · official $2,460.69 (match) · 221 history records