Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6a4…6ed6 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,511 (-65%) realized −$1,473 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$898
sports 37% −$745
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-83.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -86.3%
≤30d 11 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -86.3%
≤90d 11 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -86.3%
all 11 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -86.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.7% 0% -86.3%
10% -85.2% 0% -87.6%
15% -86.7% 0% -88.8%
20% -88.0% 0% -89.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$148 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$1,473
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $200 $351 +$151 (+75%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $189 $0 −$188 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 −$11 -5%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $550 −$540 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$5 -5%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $193 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $193 2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $550 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $98 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $205 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 39h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.20 · official $351.20 (match) · 20 history records