Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6a1…2b1a crypto 594 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-2%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%460W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$133
other 7% −$46
sports 5% +$48
world 2% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 +1.8% -7.9% 80% 46% -9.4%
≤30d 246 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 46% -9.9%
≤90d 301 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 43% -10.1%
all 594 -2.9% -12.2% 77% 32% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 32% -11.2%
10% -20.6% 15% -19.7%
15% -28.2% 9% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses460 / 134
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)594 / 594
History coverage115d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 594 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1323 history records